Click here to download or read the complete document
First National Real Estate has again surveyed its 400+ member network to provide its 2012 Property Market Outlook – Mid Year Update.
First National Real Estate members are broadly distributed across Australia, throughout cities, suburbs and country towns. As such, the network’s estate agents are exposed to mainstream Australia and are intimately acquainted with the views of the public, their response to government initiatives, their levels of confidence and their approach to property investment.
Our agents’ survey responses have been compiled to develop a picture of the Australian property market’s performance over the last six months, and their outlook for the coming six. Where we refer to ‘members’ throughout this Update, we apply this term to those network members who responded to the various parts of the survey. Where we refer to ‘Chairs’ we refer to the First National State Chairs for respective states.This economic outlook is based on industry insights and responses to the survey sent to First National State Chairs in May this year.
Economic Outlook
According to recent reports, there is some good news that says Australia’s economy surged by 1.3%, in the first quarter for 2012, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shown optimism for Australia’s economy, largely due to the anticipated pick up in business investment over the coming year, particularly mining.
First National’s state chairs are unanimous in their view that the Federal Government is not doing a good job managing our economy. However, there is a general feeling that even in the light of this, the economy will stand up to global economic uncertainty, given our growing strength and importance to the stronger performing ‘Chindia’.
Chinese tourism spending is expected to go from $43 billion to $76 billion by 2020. Chinese nationals currently represent 5% of passengers to and from Australia, but they account for 55% of our wine sales at airports. Expenditure by Chinese visitors in 2011 was $3.8 billion. This is up 1.5%. Thanks to China and Asia, we will continue to see improvements in our economy over the next two years.
Other recent good news that shows Australia’s economy may be improving comes from the latest figures for tourism and retail. These industries may have a recovery in store shortly.
Government tourism figures show domestic tourism is on the rise, with 73 million overnight trips taken in the year to March – up 5% from the same period last year. Domestic travel spending also rose 10% to $50 billion, with more than two-thirds of people travelling within their own state or territory.
In addition, the number of international trips was at a four year high – with 7 million trips being recorded.
Interest rate cuts are at the heart of a gradually strengthening retail sector, which recorded growth of 2%, freeing up substantial amounts of disposable income. Growth in retail is expected to hit 3% in 2012-13, amply aided by lower interest rates and Federal Government payouts for parents of school children. Real wages growth will also help sustain the industry in the coming 12 months.
The Chairs were evenly split on whether they thought the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was doing a good job of managing monetary policy:
- Tasmania, Victoria, Darwin and South Australia all thought the RBA was doing a good job, while
- Northern Territory, Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland said they were not.
While the RBA has been fiscally responsible with lowering interest rates, any economic or market recovery is subject to consumer confidence and increasing nervousness around job security.
Categories: Market Updates
Tags: Asia, Australia, australian real estate blogs, China, chindia, first national real estate, New South Wales, Northern Territory, Property Market Outlook, RBA, real estate, reserve bank of australia
